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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,563 · July 1, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now constructive territory. The day closes at 81, constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state81/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite21/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move66/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 21) and recent move (66) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +5.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 48% · median -1.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-11, 2014-12, 2014-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2006Perene 82
  2. April 30, 2009Perene 80
  3. September 30, 2022Perene 82 · defensive
  4. April 30, 2023Perene 82 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
  6. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -1.2% over six months, with 48% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 171,689 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,563 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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