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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,574 · July 16, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 46 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The session improved the market's mood. The index reads 48 — a neutral read.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state48/100Today ▾ -36
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite56/100Today ▲ +11
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move68/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +5.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +6.6%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +5.5%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +9.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-02, 2023-10, 2014-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2008Perene 48
  2. May 31, 2014Perene 48 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2001Perene 48
  4. August 31, 2019Perene 48 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2012Perene 48 · risk-on
  6. April 30, 2016Perene 49 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.5% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 173,825 pts, +28.5% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,574 · Regime defensive · for 46 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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