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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 1,000 · July 16, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 46 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Index methodology v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The session improved the market's mood. The day closes at 84, constructive territory. In the index composition, defensives widened their edge over cyclicals.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state54/100Today ▾ -30
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite55/100Today ▲ +10
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move72/100Today → 0
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 73% of the time — median +7.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2016Perene 54 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2015Perene 54 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2005Perene 54
  4. April 30, 2000Perene 54
  5. July 31, 2019Perene 54 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2006Perene 54
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is calibrating and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 173,825 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · for 46 days

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2026-07-15all editions · Atlas