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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,573 · July 15, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 45 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The day's reading came in at 84.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state84/100Today ▾ -15
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move72/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 45) and recent move (72) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 52% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-01, 2014-11, 2015-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2003Perene 84
  3. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  5. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  6. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 52% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 176,011 pts, +29.2% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,573 · Regime defensive · for 45 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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