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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,576 · July 20, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 50 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 32. The environment stays anchored to neutral ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state32/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move58/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day146,237 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months188,162 pts (+29%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 75 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +6.6%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.2%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +10.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2014-02, 2014-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  3. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  4. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  6. March 31, 2001Perene 33
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 173,371 pts, +27.9% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,576 · Regime defensive · for 50 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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