Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,576 · July 20, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 50 days

◦ Index methodology v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 32. The environment stays anchored to neutral ground. Across asset classes, defensives widened their edge over cyclicals.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state32/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move58/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day146,237 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months188,162 pts (+29%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +6.6%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.2%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +10.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2014-02, 2014-01 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  3. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  4. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  6. March 31, 2001Perene 33
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 173,371 pts, +27.9% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensive · for 50 days

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2026-07-17all editions · Atlas