Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,578 · July 24, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 54 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index fell to 18. The reading stays under risk aversion.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state18/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite53/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move55/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2021
    Ibovespa 118,781 → 111,593 pts (-6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +3.8%
  • 6M: higher 52% · median +0.7%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +12%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2014-01, 2024-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  2. July 31, 2025Perene 18 · defensive
  3. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  4. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  5. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2024Perene 16 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +0.7% over six months, with 52% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 174,042 pts, +29.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,578 · Regime defensive · for 54 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2026-07-23all editions · Atlas