Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,580 · July 24, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 54 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The reading stays under risk aversion.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state18/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite53/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move55/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2021
    Ibovespa 118,781 → 111,593 pts (-6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 75 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +6.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 48% · median -1.2%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +10.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2014-01, 2024-05 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  2. July 31, 2025Perene 18 · defensive
  3. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  4. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  5. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2024Perene 16 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -1.2% over six months, with 48% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 174,042 pts, +29.8% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,580 · Regime defensive · for 54 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-07-23all editions · Observatory2026-07-27 · next edition →