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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,594 · August 13, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 74 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The day's reading came in at 8. On the asset-class side, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state8/100Today ▾ -30
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite28/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move35/100Today ▾ -10
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2021
    Ibovespa 122,516 → 112,161 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 44% · median -2%
  • 12M: higher 48% · median -0.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-08, 2024-06, 2023-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
  2. October 31, 2017Perene 8 · risk-on
  3. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  4. September 30, 2000Perene 9
  5. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  6. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -2% over six months, with 44% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 167,101 pts, +23.2% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,594 · Regime defensive · for 74 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-12all editions · Observatory