Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,595 · August 14, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 75 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The session ended with the Perene at 0. On the sector side, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite31/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move38/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day122,516 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,161 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 52% · median +1.4%
  • 6M: higher 44% · median -2%
  • 12M: higher 48% · median -0.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-08, 2023-10, 2024-05 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -2% over six months, with 44% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 166,934 pts, +21% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,595 · Regime defensive · for 75 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-13all editions · Observatory