Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,593 · August 12, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 73 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market's mood worsened. The close took the Perene Index to 39.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite27/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move45/100Today → 0
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 68 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 68% · median +4.7%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +2.9%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +11.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2024-06, 2018-07, 2021-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  5. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.9% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 167,491 pts, +23.2% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,593 · Regime defensive · for 73 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-11all editions · Observatory2026-08-13 · next edition →