Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,596 · August 17, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 78 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. The index reads 50 — a neutral read. At the ends of the index, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state50/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite27/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move34/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 83 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +6.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +6.4%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.2%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +12.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-01, 2023-10, 2021-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2016Perene 50 · defensive
  2. May 31, 2015Perene 50 · defensive
  3. January 31, 2018Perene 50 · risk-on
  4. May 31, 2002Perene 50
  5. March 31, 2002Perene 50
  6. April 30, 2017Perene 49 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 166,784 pts, +22% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,596 · Regime defensive · for 78 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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