Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,596 · August 17, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 78 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The Perene Index returned to the low end of the scale, now at 0. The environment stays anchored to a defensive extreme. In the index's internal move, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite27/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move38/100Today → 0
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day122,516 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,161 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +6.4%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.2%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +12.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-01, 2023-10, 2021-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 166,784 pts, +22% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,596 · Regime defensive · for 78 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-14all editions · Observatory