Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,618 · September 17, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 109 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The mood worsened for the third straight session. Today, the Perene Index closed at 73.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state73/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite40/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move46/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (73) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2001Perene 73
  2. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
  3. March 31, 2025Perene 74 · defensive
  4. March 31, 2012Perene 74 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2009Perene 74
  6. December 31, 2013Perene 74 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 185,992 pts, +30.7% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,618 · Regime defensive · for 109 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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