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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,622 · September 23, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 115 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now a neutral read. The day's reading came in at 63.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state63/100Today ▾ -26
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move59/100Today ▲ +9
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +6.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2023Perene 63 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2014Perene 63 · defensive
  3. March 31, 2024Perene 63 · neutral
  4. February 29, 2016Perene 63 · defensive
  5. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  6. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 185,814 pts, +27.6% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,622 · Regime defensive · for 115 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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