Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,651 · November 5, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 158 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index rose to 7.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite6/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move14/100Today → 0
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoNovember 30, 2021
    Ibovespa that day101,915 pts
    the archive suggested+24% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,393 pts (+10%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  2. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  3. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  4. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  6. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 166,191 pts, +11.8% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,651 · Regime defensive · for 158 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-11-04all editions · Observatory