Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,470 · December 21, 2009 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The Perene Index eased to 2.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state2/100Today ▾ -22
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoMarch 31, 2005
    Ibovespa that day26,611 pts
    what happened in 6 months31,317 pts (+18%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2005 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 22 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  4. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  5. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  6. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 65,925 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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