Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,454 · December 13, 2013 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The index reads 0 — capitulation territory.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoMay 31, 2013
Ibovespa that day53,506 pts
the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months51,847 pts (-3%)
Reread the edition of May 31, 2013 →
○Five years agoSeptember 2009
Ibovespa 61,518 → 71,417 pts (+16% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 31 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 52% of the time — median +0.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 50,051 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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