Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,337 · July 12, 2017 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 94. Sentiment did not shift: it stays neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▲ +59
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite42/100Today ▲ +30
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2016
    Ibovespa that day56,756 pts
    what happened in 6 months64,836 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2016 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2012
    Ibovespa 65,812 → 57,369 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2021Perene 94 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  3. November 30, 2013Perene 94 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 64,836 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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