Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,770 · April 16, 2019 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Sentiment gave ground for the sixth straight session. The index reads 7 — extreme risk-off.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▾ -18

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite31/100Today ▾ -11

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoMay 31, 2018
Ibovespa that day77,240 pts
the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months88,624 pts (+15%)
Reread the edition of May 31, 2018 →
○Five years agoSeptember 2014
Ibovespa 54,116 → 53,737 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 94,333 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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