Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,093 · August 3, 2020 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-on. The close took the Perene Index to 78.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state78/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite55/100Today ▲ +14
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2019
    Ibovespa that day101,340 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,573 pts (+17%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2015
    Ibovespa 50,865 → 40,592 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2005Perene 78
  2. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  3. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  5. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  6. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 102,830 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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