Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,213 · January 29, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to defensive ground. The day closes at 30, defensive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state30/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite36/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day80,506 pts
    the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months96,582 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2016
    Ibovespa 59,589 → 62,470 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +5.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  2. December 31, 2009Perene 30
  3. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  4. July 31, 2012Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2025Perene 31 · defensive
  6. July 31, 2003Perene 31
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,007 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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