Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,211 · January 27, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The index reads 25 — risk-off.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state25/100Today ▲ +6

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite42/100Today → 0

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoApril 30, 2020
Ibovespa that day80,506 pts
the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months96,582 pts (+20%)
Reread the edition of April 30, 2020 →
○Five years agoJanuary 2015
Ibovespa 47,651 → 50,011 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 115,882 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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