Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,436 · December 22, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to neutral ground. The day closes at 33, a neutral read.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state33/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2016
    Ibovespa 59,589 → 62,470 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2009Perene 33
  2. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  3. March 31, 2001Perene 33
  4. January 31, 2000Perene 33
  5. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  6. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 105,244 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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