Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,485 · March 7, 2022 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-off. The Perene Index stopped at 25.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state25/100Today ▾ -27

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite41/100Today ▾ -10

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoFebruary 28, 2021
Ibovespa that day110,335 pts
the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months119,740 pts (+9%)
Reread the edition of February 28, 2021 →
○Five years agoMarch 2018
Ibovespa 84,666 → 78,624 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 111,593 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2022-02-28all editions · Observatory2022-03-14 · next edition →