Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,671 · December 1, 2022 · reconstructed essentials

After several flat days, the day registered movement. The index reads 1 — capitulation territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state1/100Today ▾ -25
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood38/100Today ▾ -8
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2021
    Ibovespa that day101,915 pts
    the archive suggested+24% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,393 pts (+10%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2017
    Ibovespa 71,971 → 76,117 pts (+6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  2. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  3. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 110,926 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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