Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,839 · August 3, 2023 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. The index reads 90 — the top of the scale.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state90/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite64/100Today → 0
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day109,523 pts
    what happened in 6 months104,700 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +3.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  2. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  3. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
  4. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
  5. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  6. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 120,586 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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