Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,949 · January 15, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's condition held.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state82/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite61/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day116,037 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months105,148 pts (-9%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2019
    Ibovespa 97,394 → 100,098 pts (+3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2022Perene 82 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2006Perene 82
  3. April 30, 2023Perene 82 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
  5. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  6. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 131,521 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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