Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,056 · June 19, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index moved under risk aversion, now at 22.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state22/100Today ▲ +18
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite54/100Today ▲ +26
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2019
    Ibovespa 96,054 → 104,745 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 52% of the time — median +2.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2024Perene 23 · defensive
  3. September 30, 2001Perene 23
  4. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  5. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  6. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 120,261 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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