Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,135 · October 8, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The close took the Perene Index to 32.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state32/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite64/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoApril 30, 2019
    Ibovespa that day96,353 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months108,187 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2019 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 67 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  3. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  4. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  6. March 31, 2001Perene 33
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 131,512 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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