Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,136 · October 9, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The configuration remains in risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state20/100Today ▾ -7
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite58/100Today ▲ +26
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +6.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
  4. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  5. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  6. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 129,962 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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