Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,241 · March 17, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market still trades on a neutral mood.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state92/100Today ▲ +61

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite59/100Today ▲ +19

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoDecember 31, 2023
Ibovespa that day132,697 pts
the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months125,662 pts (-5%)
Reread the edition of December 31, 2023 →
○Five years agoJune 2020
Ibovespa 95,056 → 118,558 pts (+25% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 130,834 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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