Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,469 · February 11, 2026 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-on. The Perene Index rose to 80.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state80/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day130,260 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,337 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2020
    Ibovespa 102,912 → 119,925 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2009Perene 80
  2. July 31, 2015Perene 79 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2011Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2019Perene 79 · risk-on
  5. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  6. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 189,699 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2026-02-03all editions · Atlas2026-02-28 · next edition →