Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,470 · February 12, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The index reads 45 — neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state45/100Today ▾ -35
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite63/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +8.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2010Perene 45 · broad risk-on
  2. August 31, 2001Perene 45
  3. September 30, 2018Perene 45 · neutral
  4. August 31, 2025Perene 45 · defensive
  5. August 31, 2016Perene 45 · neutral
  6. August 31, 2010Perene 45 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 187,766 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-02-11all editions · Observatory2026-02-13 · next edition →