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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,501 · March 31, 2026 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

After several flat days, the day registered movement. The Perene Index marked 48 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state51/100Today ▲ +33
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite61/100Today ▲ +47
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 74 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +1.1%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +4.4%
  • 12M: higher 89% · median +10.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-11, 2025-02, 2024-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2024Perene 51 · neutral
  2. September 30, 2011Perene 51 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2019Perene 51 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2018Perene 51 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2022Perene 52 · defensive
  6. March 31, 2000Perene 52
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.4% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=10).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 187,462 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,501 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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