Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,521 · April 30, 2026 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Utilities lost relative ground. The Perene Index settled at 10 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state11/100Today ▲ +11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite54/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2021
    Ibovespa 110,979 → 118,885 pts (+7% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 69 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 62% · median +7.7%
  • 6M: higher 69% · median +8.3%
  • 12M: higher 91% · median +15.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2025-10, 2025-08, 2023-08 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2019Perene 11 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2006Perene 11
  3. March 31, 2020Perene 11 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2017Perene 11 · risk-on
  5. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  6. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8.3% over six months, with 69% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 187,318 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,521 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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