Brazil market regime — 2026-04-30

In 13 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 69% of the time after 6 months (median +8.3%, central range -0.3% to 11%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 62% · median +7.7% · central range -1%…+10.5% (n=13)
• 6M: higher 69% · median +8.3% · central range -0.3%…+11% (n=13)
• 12M: higher 91% · median +15.5% · central range +9.3%…+17.6% (n=11)

13 independent episodes · e.g. 2025-10, 2025-08, 2023-08, 2021-11, 2016-11 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios