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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of May 31, 2026 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to neutral ground. The day closes at 39, neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state42/100Today ▲ +26
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite13/100Today ▾ -16
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2021
    Ibovespa 117,365 → 121,801 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 52% · median +2.5%
  • 6M: higher 68% · median +7.3%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +14.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2018-09, 2018-07, 2018-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  2. June 30, 2002Perene 42
  3. April 30, 2002Perene 42
  4. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  5. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.3% over six months, with 68% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 173,788 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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