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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,547 · June 9, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 9 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought no relief to the mood, which stayed depressed. The day's reading came in at 56.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state53/100Today ▲ +10
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite2/100Today → 0
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +4.9%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +2.6%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +14.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-07, 2023-03, 2024-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2024Perene 53 · defensive
  2. March 31, 2013Perene 53 · risk-on
  3. March 31, 2004Perene 54
  4. June 30, 2001Perene 53
  5. June 30, 2006Perene 54
  6. September 30, 2015Perene 52 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.6% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 169,813 pts, +23.9% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,547 · Regime defensive · for 9 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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