Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,546 · June 8, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 8 days

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index settled at 41 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state43/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite2/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2021
    Ibovespa 117,365 → 121,801 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 68 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +8.4%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +9.3%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +12.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-02, 2023-03, 2023-10 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  5. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  6. June 30, 2002Perene 42
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +9.3% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 168,669 pts, +22.6% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,546 · Regime defensive · for 8 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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