Brazil market regime — 2026-06-24
Radar Perene daily snapshot · reconstructed essentials
Today’s pulse — Perene Risk 67.4/100 (neutro) · Ânima 20/100 (pessimismo extremo)
Brazil's market is in a defensive regime. The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.
Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.7% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Ibovespa at 170507 pts
Analogous cases — what came next
- 3M: higher 67% · median +5.2%
- 6M: higher 83% · median +5.7%
- 12M: higher 100% · median +15.8%
Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-03, 2024-07, 2022-07 · how the analogs are built →
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record