Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,558 · June 24, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 24 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 77. The backdrop remains in constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state67/100Today ▲ +7
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite20/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move56/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 20) and recent move (56) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2020
    Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2007Perene 67
  2. November 30, 2023Perene 67 · neutral
  3. July 31, 2018Perene 67 · neutral
  4. September 30, 2004Perene 67
  5. January 31, 2003Perene 68
  6. June 30, 2007Perene 66
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 170,507 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,558 · Regime defensivo · for 24 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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