Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,557 · June 23, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 23 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A lighter day on the reading. The market ended with a Perene Index of 69.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state61/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite28/100Today ▲ +3
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move56/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 28) and recent move (56) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2011Perene 61 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2001Perene 61
  3. May 31, 2007Perene 62
  4. September 30, 2006Perene 62
  5. October 31, 2004Perene 62
  6. February 28, 2015Perene 62 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 171,259 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,557 · Regime defensivo · for 23 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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