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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,567 · July 7, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 37 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The Perene Index stopped at 73.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state73/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite46/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move78/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 46) and recent move (78) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 64 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +5.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 68% · median +4.7%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +5.5%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-12, 2014-03, 2015-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2001Perene 73
  2. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
  3. March 31, 2025Perene 74 · defensive
  4. March 31, 2012Perene 74 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2009Perene 74
  6. December 31, 2013Perene 74 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.5% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 172,021 pts, +22.1% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,567 · Regime defensive · for 37 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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