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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 957 · July 14, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 44 days · reconstructed essentials

The market pulled back to an appetite extreme. The day closes with the Perene Index at 91. On the asset-class side, defensives widened their edge over cyclicals.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state88/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood39/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move79/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 39) and recent move (79) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  2. November 30, 2004Perene 88
  3. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  4. June 30, 2019Perene 88 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 175,739 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · for 44 days

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2026-07-13all editions · Atlas