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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,586 · August 3, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 64 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market returned to neutral ground. The session ended with the Perene at 56.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state56/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite31/100Today ▾ -10
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move56/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 31) and recent move (56) diverge.

The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day158,611 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months169,813 pts (+7%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 70 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +6.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +3.2%
  • 6M: higher 52% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +4.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2013-10, 2014-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2021Perene 56 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2019Perene 56 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  4. March 31, 2015Perene 55 · defensive
  5. September 30, 2017Perene 57 · neutral
  6. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 52% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 178,000 pts, +32.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,586 · Regime defensive · for 64 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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