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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,601 · August 24, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 85 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. The day closes with the Perene Index at 63. Across asset classes, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state63/100Today ▲ +29
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite24/100Today ▾ -6
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move50/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 24) and recent move (50) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 75 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 100% · median +4.6%
  • 6M: higher 78% · median +8.8%
  • 12M: higher 89% · median +25.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-07, 2025-01, 2024-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2023Perene 63 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2014Perene 63 · defensive
  3. March 31, 2024Perene 63 · neutral
  4. February 29, 2016Perene 63 · defensive
  5. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  6. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8.8% over six months, with 78% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 171,907 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,601 · Regime defensivo · for 85 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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