Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,602 · August 25, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 86 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The day closes at 92, the top of the scale. In the intermarket, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state92/100Today ▲ +29
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite26/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move53/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 26) and recent move (53) diverge.

The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +3.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2013-12, 2013-10, 2014-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2014Perene 92 · defensive
  3. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  4. October 31, 2018Perene 93 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  6. October 31, 2014Perene 93 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 174,577 pts, +29.8% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,602 · Regime defensive · for 86 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-24all editions · Observatory