Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,195 · January 4, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to an appetite extreme. The Perene Index settled at 92 by day's end.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state92/100Today ▾ -4

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite55/100Today ▾ -11

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoJune 30, 2020
Ibovespa that day95,056 pts
the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months118,558 pts (+25%)
Reread the edition of June 30, 2020 →
○Five years agoOctober 2015
Ibovespa 48,054 → 52,764 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 46 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 118,558 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2020-12-31all editions · Observatory2021-01-14 · next edition →