Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,111 · September 4, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood improved. The index reads 91 — stretched risk-on.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state91/100Today ▲ +27

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite53/100Today ▾ -8

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoJuly 31, 2023
Ibovespa that day121,943 pts
the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months128,481 pts (+5%)
Reread the edition of July 31, 2023 →
○Five years agoJune 2019
Ibovespa 101,340 → 118,573 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 136,111 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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