Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,160 · November 12, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The Perene Index stopped at 26.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state26/100Today ▲ +9
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2019
    Ibovespa 104,745 → 69,538 pts (-34% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2022Perene 26 · defensive
  2. March 31, 2019Perene 26 · neutral
  3. January 31, 2013Perene 27 · risk-on
  4. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
  5. September 30, 2003Perene 25
  6. June 30, 2005Perene 28
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 127,698 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2024-11-08all editions · Observatory2024-11-18 · next edition →