Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,336 · August 1, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Market sentiment worsened. The day closes at 22, defensive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state22/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite32/100Today ▾ -7
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day131,816 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months127,256 pts (-3%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2020
    Ibovespa 80,506 → 96,582 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +6.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2024Perene 23 · defensive
  3. September 30, 2001Perene 23
  4. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  5. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  6. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 132,437 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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