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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,465 · February 5, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The day's reading came in at 64.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state64/100Today ▾ -21
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite54/100Today ▾ -8
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day126,135 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months133,151 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2024Perene 64 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2010Perene 64 · risk-on
  3. October 31, 2000Perene 64
  4. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  5. July 31, 2022Perene 65 · defensive
  6. February 29, 2016Perene 63 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 182,127 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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