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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,549 · June 11, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 11 days

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The day closes at 69, constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state62/100Today ▲ +11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite14/100Today ▲ +12
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 69 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +4%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +2.6%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +14.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-03, 2024-07, 2022-07 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2004Perene 62
  2. February 28, 2015Perene 62 · neutral
  3. August 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
  4. May 31, 2007Perene 62
  5. September 30, 2006Perene 62
  6. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.6% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 171,497 pts, +26% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,549 · Regime defensive · for 11 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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