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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,550 · June 12, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 12 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The prevailing mood stays depressed. The Perene Index stopped at 64.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state61/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite15/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 71% · median +4.6%
  • 6M: higher 57% · median +2.6%
  • 12M: higher 86% · median +14.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-03, 2024-07, 2022-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2011Perene 61 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2001Perene 61
  3. May 31, 2007Perene 62
  4. September 30, 2006Perene 62
  5. October 31, 2004Perene 62
  6. February 28, 2015Perene 62 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.6% over six months, with 57% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 171,133 pts, +26.1% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,550 · Regime defensive · for 12 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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