Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,556 · June 22, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 22 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index settled at 66 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state60/100Today ▲ +12
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite25/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move55/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 25) and recent move (55) diverge.

Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 70 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +7.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2003Perene 60
  2. August 31, 2000Perene 60
  3. December 31, 2011Perene 61 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2001Perene 61
  5. April 30, 2015Perene 59 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2020Perene 58 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 170,370 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,556 · Regime defensivo · for 22 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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